How IS-K group linked to Taylor Swift terror plot is increasing in strength and influence

Exclusive data shows how a rise in online propaganda and a surge in global plots has made the Afghanistan branch of the terror group “the greatest external terror threat” to Europe.

The international influence of Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), a branch of the Islamic State, has been on the rise.

The group has been linked to numerous attacks and planned attacks in 2024. The highest profile plots include a deadly attack on a concert hall in Moscow, foiled plans to disrupt three Taylor Swift concerts in Austria, and twin bombings in Iran.

Sky News has analysed new data from the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) that shows a sharp rise in propaganda produced by the group, which is being disseminated in more languages than ever.

As the amount of propaganda has increased, reaching audiences far beyond Afghanistan’s borders, so has the number of international attacks and planned attacks, posing a growing threat to Western security.

German officials recently said they have foiled planned IS-K attacks, as authorities in the country remain on high alert. In July, French officials said they uncovered several terrorist plots targeting the 2024 Paris Olympics. In the weeks leading up to the Games, IS-K’s propaganda channels had published several posters inciting supporters to attack various locations in Paris during the event.

Experts expect this trend of incitement to continue gaining traction and the UN has warned of IS-K’s heightened threat levels across Europe.

“The group is considered the greatest external terrorist threat to the continent,” Vladimir Voronkov, the under-secretary-general for the UN’s Office of Counter-Terrorism, said in a briefing in August.

The Afghan wing of Islamic State (IS), commonly known as IS-K, ISIS-K or ISKP, has emerged as the terrorist organisation’s most globally-minded affiliate.

CIR has also been observing a gradual diversification of IS-K’s media and propaganda, according to Ben den Braber, head of research for Afghan Witness, the team behind the new data.

“Recently, especially since the uptick in propaganda, we’ve seen a bigger focus on Central Asia and on Europe,” he said.

In addition to targeting its core audiences in South and Central Asia, specifically Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the group has been gradually disseminating media in an increasing number of languages.

One recent poster produced by the group’s in-house media outlet announced the broadcast of their content in Urdu, adding to the array of languages it already publishes including Pashto, Persian, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, Turkish, Azerbaijani, English and Arabic.

Global ambitions

IS-K first emerged in 2015, when their primary focus was to gain territory in Afghanistan to help establish a caliphate, or a territory controlled by a single IS ruler.

The K in its name refers to Khorasan, a province in Afghanistan that historically encompasses parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

After US troops pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban regained power, the number of attacks and influence by IS-K inside the country has been dwindling, according to data gathered by CIR’s Afghan Witness team.

The group has increased its strength since the US withdrawal and ramped up international operations, despite the Taliban’s campaign to crackdown on IS-K in Afghanistan.

“The threat posed by [IS-K] has grown with significant terrorist attacks outside of Afghanistan, notably in Moscow on 22 March, and with increased threat levels in Europe and other areas,” the UN Security Council recently wrote in a report.

The data backs this up. There’s been a significant uptick in attacks and arrests of IS-K-linked individuals outside Afghanistan since 2022.