NFL Week 4 player props: Travis Kelce breaks out of slump, and Jayden Daniels stays hot

With eight catches for 69 yards through three games, Travis Kelce is on pace for the worst season of his career. It’s a rate that would put him at something like 45 catches for 391 yards over 17 games. A good year for his backup, Noah Gray. Not a future Hall of Famer.

The 34-year-old’s slow start has been a topic of conversation, with some people blaming it on his offseason choices, others feeling it doesn’t deserve scrutiny because the Chiefs are undefeated, and Kelce himself weighing in by calling his play “trash.” But all that talk is about to end in Week 4. Because the breakout game everyone has been waiting for is about to happen Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Actually, we’ll see about “breakout.” Maybe that’s going a little far. But Kelce will go over his 45.5 receiving yards prop, because this is the perfect spot to do it.

In years past, we could only dream of getting a line this small on Kelce’s yardage, but now that he’s fallen short of even 35 yards in every game this year, it’s a more than reasonable number. That said, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most targets and fourth-most receptions to tight ends this year. That’s part of why I feel so comfortable projecting Kelce to have his best game of the season. At the very least, he should be heavily involved in the game plan.

Additionally, Derwin James, one of the NFL’s best safeties, is serving a one-game suspension this week. That’s one less option the Chargers have to defend Kelce.

We also can’t ignore Kelce’s history against the Chargers. It was against them that he had his last 100-yard game in the regular season — 12 catches for 179 yards to be exact. He caught for over 100 yards with three touchdowns his previous game against the Chargers too. In this new reality of reduced production for the veteran tight end, he only needs half that for this prop to cash.